The European Network of Transmission System Operators, ENTSO.E, has identified eight potential technological and socio-economic gamechangers that could disrupt current pathways for Europe’s energy transition.
These gamechangers, identified and analysed as part of the organisation’s vision for a future power system for a carbon neutral Europe, emerged from a comprehensive screening of factors that could have an impact on the energy system as a whole.
While the full analysis is available only to ENTSO.E members, these technologies depending on factors such as technology breakthrough, geopolitical changes or natural resource availability, are assessed by the association to have varying impacts on the energy transition as follows.
Promising gamechangers
In terms of impact, probability and conditions for them to materialise, the more interesting with the most promise are identified as deep digitalisation and cheap storage.
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Deep digitalisation, one of the four ‘D’s’ of the energy transition, with pervasive modifications of most devices, systems and processes is already underway but to an extent and impact not fully predictable for the long term, ENTSO.E has determined.
Cheap storage of both short and long timescale applications, if achieved, would become a prominent provider of flexibility and reduce the relevance of other flexibility forms and speed up the energy transition.
Possible gamechangers
Turning to possible gamechangers to follow closely with a high potential impact level but lower likelihood of occurrence, these are prosumers and microgrids and hydrogen uptake.
Prosumers and microgrids with high uptake of local systems would impact market patterns, reduce grid flows and support grid operation and resilience through multi-level control philosophy.
Hydrogen uptake has high present expectations but will need to increase in order to provide the required long duration flexibilities.
Potential gamechangers
Then there are the other gamechangers with less probability of occurrence or impact on the energy transition.
Superconductivity is the most likely of these and subject to further developments, should find application in specific use cases but without changing fundamentally grid planning and operation.
Nuclear renaissance is next, with either or both fusion reaching commercial viability or the wide deployment of new fission generation. Nuclear fission could reduce the need for long duration flexibility but will likely remain country dependent and not a pan-European policy and fusion is still for the very long term.
The supergrid with a continental overlaying HVDC grid is third with an expected low likelihood of occurrence but potentially significant impact with bulk power exchanges with neighbouring countries if geopolitical conditions will allow it.
Carbon capture and storage rounds off the list with its potential for achieving cheap and wide application to fossil plants although in the short term the technologies are not mature or cost effective, while in the long term it is not consistent with the phasing out of fossil industry processes.
