Plant designers tend to start with how to fit the equipment into the space they have. However, if aerodynamics are not thought about at the beginning of a project, the chances are that the performance of the GT, especially for faster / compact operating intake systems, will not be optimised – and small margins will make a big difference to overall plant performance.

By Kate Taylor, principal engineer and Marcus Walters, head of engineering for the Parker Hannifin Gas Turbine Filtration Division

So, what are the issues and what do they mean for efficiency, power output, reliability, and maintenance?

A good inlet filtration solution requires more than looking at the performance of individual filters. It uses multiple filters and filtration stages and almost certainly incorporates weather protection along with other systems such as evaporative or coil cooling. These multiple systems and components need to work together, and the design needs to be optimised to ensure GTs are both protected and operations optimised.

A uniform airflow through the filter bank is essential to minimise the pressure loss, and to ensure the filter efficiency and filter life are optimised. The overall design of the filter house should encourage an even distribution of flow across the whole filter array.

If the flow is not optimised, the operation of the filters and the GT itself will be compromised. For example, if a filter house is designed with a bank of 500 filters, an uneven airflow may mean only 400 of them are being utilised correctly, with some running too fast and others barely being used at all. This will result in shorter filter life, higher pressure loss, and potentially lower filtration efficiency.

The size and position of a GT inlet filter house are important. The position of a filter house will influence how the air flows.

Have environmental and other features of the installation been considered? To balance the layout and airflow through the system, the inlet position is important. The wrong elevation, sharp angles, transitions that are not smooth, or proximity to walls or other obstructions, will all influence how the air flows. Poor transition design will also increase pressure loss.

Has the prevailing wind been considered in the design? Wind will carry contaminants such as dust or sea spray with it.

Is the inlet open to sea spray, emissions from cooling towers, or other equipment or infrastructure that will increase exposure to particulates that are harmful to GT performance? What elevation is the inlet house at? If low down, systems will pull up dust from the ground and suck it into the filters.

Even if filters are working reasonably well, a poorly designed cooling system will reduce the benefit this expensive piece of equipment can offer. It will increase the risk of water carry over, impacting differential pressure across the system and the life of the gas turbine. It may also result in the loss of the augmented power the system was installed to produce, and uneven temperature distribution downstream will reduce the stall margin of the GT.

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Inappropriate design of turning vanes will negate much of the savings in pressure losses they have been installed to achieve. An incorrectly placed anti-icing system may have the potential to melt filters. Ultimately, there are many aspects of inlet house design that can have a serious impact on overall plant performance.

Good design practice

A lot can go wrong in inlet filter house design, but how can these challenges be overcome?

The answer lies in experience combined with an understanding of the underlying flow physics and good Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation.

Sometimes, fundamental issues can be obvious to experts, but CFD modelling shows what the problems are and can help operators or EPCs understand the issues.

It provides answers to how multiple components will interact and the effectiveness of the system configuration. It is also a valuable tool to balance cost and performance, enabling the simulation of different options to produce a solution that is optimised in every aspect of its design.

In one example, when a CFD simulation was carried out of the ducting downstream of a filter house for an offshore intake system it became clear that the inner radius of the 90-degree bend was too small – causing a large region of separated flow (image above left).

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While design guidelines exist for sizing elbows, there is not always the space available to avoid flow separation entirely. Running the CFD model with different bend radii helped to determine how large an increase was necessary to reduce the size of this region and limit any resulting downstream flow distortion to acceptable levels.

Where the filter house includes an inlet bleed heating system, determining the number, position and spacing of the bleed heat nozzles is critical to a successful design.

In the example shown above, the CFD model predicts that the outer column of nozzles is positioned too close to the side wall of the filter house – hot bleed flow is entrained by a vortex from the edge of weather hood (as shown by the streamlines) and impinges on the filter house structure.

Simply considering the nozzle flow without the interaction between that and the weather hood wake would not have identified this potential problem.

Both the flows illustrated are difficult to simulate accurately, requiring some skill to choose appropriate modelling parameters and interpret the results.
Summary

As power plants try to make use of increasingly faster, more compact intake systems, sometimes site engineers who are used to running big filter houses very slowly may not consider the impact of aerodynamic design.

Parker has long experience in the design of power plant GT inlet houses and has learned many lessons over the years through its close association with major GT OEMs. The ability to model the performance of a GT inlet house requires such knowledge and experience to ensure the air being modelled is representative of the installation.

Ultimately, expert CFD modelling gives insight into how GT inlet houses, and, consequently, GTs themselves, will perform in the unique conditions of a particular installation.

It validates a solution before it reaches the site when it will be difficult to modify and adjust to deal with any problems experienced in a live application.

By taking the time to consider the aerodynamics of the system upfront, power plants can fully harness the benefits of more efficient GTs, extend system life and availability, and reduce maintenance overheads

The post Why aerodynamic design of filter houses is crucial to gas turbines appeared first on Power Engineering International.

Far from playing a receding part in the global transition to clean, sustainable energy such as renewables, gas is predicted to grow in the years preceding the 2050 target set by most countries, from 24% in 2021 to 27% by 2050, driven mainly by the power sector, according to the report.

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Key findings of the report include the following:

• Global energy demand is expected to rise by 29% over the next three decades, driven by urban and economic growth in Africa and Asia, with the former accounting for 60% of expected global population growth, and rising rates of urbanisation. The Asia-Pacific region is said to be the source of 60% of global economic growth in terms of GDP over the forecast period.
• The role of natural gas is expected to grow, buoyed by policy support in major consuming countries, but weighed by increasing pressure to reduce reliance on the resource by major first-world economies such as the USA and Japan, and increasing commitments to sustainability in both the private and public sectors.
• The power generation sector will account for the lion’s share of new gas demand – accounting for 42% of the total increase, driven by the phasing out of coal-fired generation and the electrification of end-uses of electricity, followed by the transportation and blue hydrogen generation industries.
• COVID 19, economic and technical challenges are safe-guarding gas: Whilst many regions have increased targets for both the adoption of the transition to renewable energy, the reduction of coal use, the impact of COVID19, as well related and unrelated economic and technical adoption challenges could hinder progress – bolstering the role of gas ahead of 2050.
• Almost one-third (32%) of the increased demand will be met by supply from the Middle East, with the role of deepwater and unconventional resources slated for growth in coming years.
• According to the synopsis, almost half of global hydrogen generation will be sourced from natural gas – with the majority (46%) of the remaining supply being made up of blue hydrogen, with total demand forecast to be in the region of 620 metric tonnes, with member countries predicted to export approximately 50% of total supply by 2050.

In his overview of the report, HE Eng. Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General of the GECF, noted “The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 underscores that investment in natural gas is critical for the stability of global energy systems. It projects that by 2050, total upstream and midstream investments will reach a hefty $ 8.7 trillion.”

“Environmental policies are a key driver of the projections contained in the Outlook. In this context, whilst upholding that natural gas is the cleanest of hydrocarbon fuels, the Outlook explores the state of technologies that will make it even cleaner.”

The report, published on 28 February, does not take the potential impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine into consideration. The invasion has seen far-reaching sanctions placed on Russia’s financial system by western countries and global oil and gas majors like bp and Shell announced their exit from partnerships with state-backed Russian oil and gas companies in recent days – factors which are already having major impacts on the global energy sector.

GECF is an intergovernmental organisation, made up of governmental representation of approximately 50% of global gas producing countries. The organisation includes Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela as member countries, with Azerbaijan, Iraq, Malaysia, Norway, Peru and the United Arab Emirates as observer members.

A synopsis version of the report can be found here.

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The rising cost of wholesale gas has left many UK energy suppliers with customers on unprofitable supply contracts.

Cracks in the sector started to appear in late summer when the wholesale cost for suppliers purchasing gas exceeded the price that many suppliers could charge their customers for it. This happened so rapidly that many profitable businesses became unprofitable overnight.

Soon afterwards a number of small suppliers ceased trading. Igloo and Bluegreen are among the latest casualties taking the total number of suppliers that have entered into the SoLR process since August to 20, affecting over 2.2 million customers.

Up to this point, both the government and Ofgem have seemed prepared to allow a number of the smaller suppliers to cease trading, by relying on the SoLR process in place to deal with these casualties.

However, there are limits to this process and with the recent news revealing that a leading energy supplier could be the next victim, Ofgem has been forced to consider an alternative approach in the form of a special administration known as an Energy Supply Company Administration (ESCA).

Market share
Historically, the supplier of last resort process has been seen as an opportunity for the SoLR to increase their market share of customers. The process works by giving the SoLR, which has the existing infrastructure in place, the power to take over supply to the customers of the failed supplier.

Although it is a tried and tested method that has worked previously, it is now being seen as less attractive, as the imposition of the price cap is lower than the wholesale cost of gas, effectively leaving the SoLR out of pocket, at least in the short term until it has been able to recover some or all of its losses and costs from the industry levy.

In addition to this, the whole process has its limits. It puts strain on the infrastructure of the supplier appointed as the SoLR, which can potentially have an adverse effect on its existing customers.

Recently EDF Energy said that it would not apply to be appointed as a SoLR for another supplier until it has transferred the 220,000 customers it acquired following the collapse of Utility Point.

For a larger supplier, the appointment of a SoLR is unlikely to be appropriate. So, as part of its emergency contingency measures, it is reported that Ofgem has put restructuring experts, Teneo, on standby to act as energy administrators.

Although the process has existed for some time, an ESCA has never been implemented before. The process is intended to assist where a large energy supply company fails, and the customers of the failed supplier cannot be passed on to another company through SoLR.

Dire situation
While the SoLR process has typically been a very reliable solution, the consideration of an ESCA emphasises that this is a dire situation that requires drastic measures.

Whereas the appointment of a SoLR results in the transfer of all of the customers from the failed supplier to the SoLR, the appointment of an energy administrator is different. The objective of an ESCA is to ensure supplies are continued at the lowest cost, with the energy administrator having the power to effectively split up the existing business by transferring all or part of it to two or more companies.

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Due to the number of customers and employees involved, an ESCA is considered more appropriate for larger suppliers.

The role and duties of an energy administrator differ from those of the usual company administrator appointed under Schedule B1 of the Insolvency Act 1986. Whereas a typical administrator would be tasked with acting in the interest of the creditors as a collective, an energy administrator also has an obligation to consider customers’ interests as well.

The appointment of an energy administrator is quite a drastic step for Ofgem, but the strain on the energy sector is showing no signs of easing, so it may be viewed as a necessity.

Strain on the market
The collapse of so many suppliers and the appointment of SoLRs in such a short period of time, has put a significant strain on the market. Not only has it raised questions around the handling of the crisis by Ofgem and the government, and in particular whether more could have been done sooner, it has also adversely affected the employees of these businesses and their customers.

If a large supplier is next to fall, it’s likely that an energy administrator will be appointed. Following the number of SoLR appointments this year, it is expected that there will be numerous claims over the next year for the costs incurred when taking on additional customers. While this will be covered by the industry, ultimately it will be the customer that pays.

For energy suppliers and their directors, the most crucial thing to do now is to act quickly. By identifying the problem and seeking professional advice straight away, it may be possible to secure an investment or sale that could guarantee a future for the business.

However, doing so takes time, so it’s important to act early while there is still sufficient cash flow to see the business through. Time is of the essence and waiting too long could jeopardise the future of the business.

Even if wholesale prices reduce in the near future, it will be too late for many, and the industry and its regulators will face an uphill battle to regain public confidence.

Given how quickly these events have happened, highlighting the volatility in the market, there may be a reluctance from investors to invest in the future, which could result in an even slower recovery. What is clear is that the effects of the events of the last few months will be felt by everyone for some time.

Tim Speed is partner and energy specialist at law firm, Shakespeare Martineau 

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The report projects long-held conversations around efficiency and utilisation in the data centre industry evolving to reflect a more comprehensive and aggressive focus on sustainability. This movement recognises the urgency of the climate crisis, the relationship between resource availability and rising costs and shifting political winds around the world.

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“As we move into 2022, data centre operators and suppliers will actively pursue strategies that can make a real difference in addressing the climate crisis,” said Vertiv CEO, Rob Johnson.

“For our part, we continue to focus on energy efficiency across our portfolio, as well as alternative and renewable energy technologies and zero-carbon energy sources, to prioritise water-free cooling technologies, and to partner with research leaders and our customers to focus on impactful sustainability efforts,” Johnson said.

The actions data centre decision-makers take on these fronts will have a profound impact on the digital economy in 2022 and beyond. The urgency of these challenges is reflected in the 2022 trends identified by Vertiv’s experts.

Trend 1: Data centre industry to tackle sustainability and the climate crisis

The data centre industry has taken steps toward more climate-friendly practices in recent years, but operators will join the climate effort more purposefully in 2022. On the operational front, Vertiv predicts some organisations will embrace sustainable energy strategies that utilise a digital solution that matches energy use with 100% renewable energy and ultimately operates on 24/7 sustainable energy. Such hybrid distributed energy systems can provide both AC and DC power, which adds options to improve efficiencies and eventually allows data centres to operate carbon-free.

Fuel cells, renewable assets and long-duration energy storage systems, including battery energy storage systems (BESS) and lithium-ion batteries, all will play a vital role in providing sustainable, resilient and reliable outcomes. Thermal systems that use zero water are in demand and we will see refrigerants with high global warming potential (GWP) phased down in favour of low-GWP refrigerants.

More immediately, extreme weather events related to climate change will influence decisions around where and how to build new data centres and telecommunications networks. Other factors, including the reliability and affordability of the grid, regional temperatures, availability of water and renewable and locally generated sustainable energy, and regulations that ration utility power and limit the amount of power afforded to data centres, play a part in the decision-making as well.

These extreme weather events will drive more robust infrastructure systems across the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) space which will need to be carefully aligned with sustainability goals. In 2022, data centre and telecom operators will wrestle with these issues – and ever-present latency questions – and will drive a need for solutions that can address all these challenges.

Trend 2: Artificial intelligence becomes more prominent

As today’s networks become more complex and more distributed, and the augmented and virtual reality demands of the metaverse become more prominent, the need for real-time computing and decision-making becomes more critical. This real-time need is sensitive to latencies, and under the increasingly common hybrid model of enterprise, public and private clouds, colocation and edge, full-time manual management is impractical, if not impossible. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning will be critical to optimising the performance of these networks.

It will take focus and time to collect the right data, build the right models and train the network platform to make the right decisions. However, the programming tools have become simplified enough that data scientists are able to point computing resources at a problem without having to be experts in programming or hardware. The availability of AI hardware from established vendors, cloud options for the same, a simplified toolchain and an educational focus on data science has put AI in play for even smaller companies. It all adds up to accelerated AI adoption in 2022.

As with every technological advance, there are ripple effects. The increase in AI will unavoidably increase computing and heat densities and, by extension, accelerate the adoption of liquid cooling. One of the challenges is the fact that lowering the barrier to entry places a premium on choosing the right vendors, platforms and systems to trust.

Trend 3: The post-pandemic data centre takes shape

Some 2.9 gigawatts worth of new data centre construction is under way globally – up from 1.6 gigawatts in 2020. Those data centres will be the first built specifically to meet the needs of a post-COVID world. More activity will be focused at the edge, where VMwater projects a dramatic shift in workload distribution – from 5% currently to 30% over the next five years. Availability will remain the top priority, even at the edge, but lower latency is a rising need to support healthy buildings, smart cities, distributed energy resources and 5G. 2022 will see increased investment in the edge to support this new normal (remote work, increased reliance on ecommerce and telehealth, video streaming) and the continuing rollout of 5G.

Trend 4: Drive toward integration

Various data centre equipment providers have been embracing integrated systems that allow for modular capacity additions for years, with integrated racks and rows among today’s most popular data centre offerings. In 2022, Vertiv predicts that we will see the next step in integration as data centres work with providers to better integrate larger systems – all components of the power infrastructure, for example – and deliver seamless interoperability.

The benefits of integration as a concept are well known – reduced construction and deployment costs, flexible capacity management – and applying the same approach across larger systems delivers speed. Rack-based power solutions are early accelerators of integration momentum.

Access Vertiv’s Key Data Centre Trends to Watch in 2022 report.

Originally published by Zeenat Ganie on esi-africa.com

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“Governments need to resolve this at COP26 by giving a clear and unmistakable signal that they are committed to rapidly scaling up the clean and resilient technologies of the future.”

Birol was speaking at the launch of the IEA’s new World Energy Outlook 2021 report that explores in detail the world’s new energy economy at a time when energy markets are extremely volatile.

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The report, designed as a policy guide for governments ahead of COP26, makes it clear that this clean energy progress is still far too slow to put global emissions into sustained decline towards net zero.

Birol explained that high coal, gas, and oil prices are not good news for the global economy and inflation or emissions and that three main factors are causing the situation:

• Huge economic growth – a rebound of 6% mainly fueled by fossil fuels. The recovery is causing the second largest emissions increase in history and is therefore not sustainable.
• Several extreme weather events at the same time, including doughts, floods and extreme winters.
• Planned and unplanned disruptions in supply caused by maintenance works that were postponed due to COVID.

Birol made it very clear that current market volatility is not caused by too much clean energy and even though governments are making pledges, there is still work to do. “More and more governments are making pledges – we are thankful, but, there is a big but, today’s climate pledges would result in only 20% of the emissions reduction by 2030 that are necessary to put the world on a path towards net zero by 2050. The pledges are far from satisfactory.”

The WEO-2021 report shows that even as deployments of solar and wind go from strength to strength, coal consumption is still growing strongly this year.

The analysis spells out what the government emissions pledges mean for the energy sector and the climate and sets out what needs to be done to move from mere pledges to a net-zero trajectory consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

The report makes recommendations based on two scenarios; the Stated Policies Scenario and the Announced Pledges Scenario. The differences between the outcomes in the Announced Pledges Scenario and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario are stark, highlighting the need for more ambitious commitments and greater investment if the world is to reach net zero by mid-century.

Insufficient investment is contributing to uncertainty over the future and spending on clean energy transitions is far below what would be required to meet future needs in a sustainable way.

“Reaching that path requires investment in clean energy projects and infrastructure to more than triple over the next decade. Some 70% of that additional spending needs to happen in emerging and developing economies, where financing is scarce and capital remains up to seven times more expensive than in advanced economies,” stated Birol.

“There is a looming risk of more turbulence for global energy markets,” Dr Birol said. “We are not investing enough to meet future energy needs, and the uncertainties are setting the stage for a volatile period ahead. The way to address this mismatch is clear – a major boost in clean energy investment, across all technologies and all markets. But this needs to happen quickly.”

The briefing did however present some good news.

The report stresses that the extra investment to reach net zero by 2050 is less burdensome than it might appear.

Also, pursuing net zero would create a market for wind turbines, solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, electrolysers and fuel cells of well over $1 trillion a year by 2050, comparable in size to the current oil market.

Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeler, IEA applauded China’s announcement to cease funding new coal projects and added that emissions can be quickly reduced by using cost-effective technologies that are currently available.

These include wind and solar, nuclear expansion, methane abatement, energy efficiency and electrification. Said Cozzi: “We are entering the decade of the turning point, for emissions and energy markets. For the first time, the world is ensuring economic growth, while reducing emissions.”

Download the report.

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While delays in permitting lengthened project time for some, the COVID-19 pandemic did not impact the sector too heavily. China is expected to overtake the UK as the country with the largest installed capacity this year.

A factor that will continue to have a big effect on the market is the dramatic fall in the Levelised Cost of Energy from wind projects situated offshore. Prices are becoming more attractive for countries that have the optimal fundamental conditions for offshore wind production and are looking for low-cost, high-capacity renewable energy sources.

The report notes that a key driver of the growth in projects is the increasing number of countries, cities and companies declaring a net zero commitment.

Commitments to meeting Paris Agreement and beyond could be influenced by offshore wind installations

To meet the IEA and IRENA’s 1.5°C scenario, GWEC believes offshore wind capacity will have to be significantly ramped up over the next two decades.

Though 35GW of installed capacity currently exists, primarily in Europe and China, this represents less than 0.5% of global installed capacity. Nonetheless, GWEC points out, the offshore wind resources are formidable. The World Bank has identified more than 71,000GW of technical resource potential available worldwide, which is nearly 10 times the world’s current installed electricity capacity.

The Offshore Wind Resource Hub, launched by GWEC on World Ocean Day in 2021, consolidates territorial maps of fixed and floating offshore wind potential in nearly 100 countries. These illustrate the potential for offshore wind, as an indigenous and sustainable resource, to be distributed in every region of the world, from the Caribbean to East Asia to sub-Saharan Africa.

Based on IRENA’s target of 2,000GW, which would be required to achieve carbon neutrality and sustain a Paris-compliant pathway, GWEC Market Intelligence foresees Asia emerging as the world’s most prominent region for deployment of wind projects offshore, home to nearly 40% of installations by 2050, followed by Europe (32%), North America (18%), Latin America (6%), the Pacific region (4%) and Africa and the Middle East (2%).

Innovations in wind production continue to expand possibilities

Floating wind projects have moved from concept to reality in the last year and fully commercial scale projects are expected by the end of this decade. “Next decade we expect floating wind to compete directly with fixed foundations, partly because floating wind trebles the size of the addressable market,” reads the report foreword.

The report suggests GWEC sees offshore projects as able to compete directly with fixed foundations project “partly because floating wind trebles the size of the addressable market”.

According to the report, the next innovation that will spur wind projects situated offshore to greater deployment is the concept of energy islands. Denmark at the beginning of 2021 approved the creation of an artificial island solely devoted to the creation of energy. It is now moving forward with locations in the North Sea and Baltic Sea identified and survey work commenced. The plan is to have the first phases operational in the early 2030s.

Interest in the subject of hydrogen and Power-to-X (taking surplus renewable electricity from wind, solar or water and converting it into other energy carriers) is growing, which could create routes to market which don’t require a large local power demand. “It is interesting to note that this area is a focus for oil and gas players who bring their considerable experience and skills to the opportunity,” reads the report.

The Global Offshore Wind Report 2021 is available online.

Originally published by Theresa Smith on esi-africa.com

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Written in collaboration with BloombergNEF and the German Energy Agency, Deutsche Energie-Agentur (dena) –Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to Accelerate the Energy Transition reviews the state of play of AI adoption in the energy sector, identifies high-priority applications of AI in the energy transition and offers a road map and practical recommendations for the energy and AI industries to maximize AI’s benefits. 

According to the report, AI could create substantial value for the global energy transition. BNEF’s net-zero scenario modelling shows that every 1% of additional efficiency in demand creates $1.3 trillion in value between 2020 and 2050 due to reduced investment needs. AI could achieve this by enabling greater energy efficiency and flexing demand. 

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Roberto Bocca, head of energy, World Economic Forum, said: “AI is already making its mark on many parts of society and the economy. In energy, we are only seeing the beginning of what AI can do to speed up the transition to the low-emissions, ultra-efficient and interconnected energy systems we need tomorrow.

“This report shows the potential and what it will take to unlock it – guided by principles that span how to govern, design and enable responsible use of AI in energy. Governments and companies can collectively create a real tipping point in using AI for a faster energy transition.”

High priority applications of artificial intelligence can accelerate the transition to a low-carbon energy future 

(1) Identifying patterns and insights in data to increase efficiency and savings: It is estimated that between $92 trillion and $173 trillion investment in energy infrastructure will be needed between 2020 and 2050. Even single-digit percentage gains in flexibility, efficiency, or capacity in clean energy and low-carbon infrastructure systems can therefore lead to trillions of dollars in value and savings.

(2) Coordinating power systems with growing shares of renewable energy: As electrification increases across sectors, the power sector is becoming the core pillar of the global energy supply. Ramping up the deployment of renewable energy will create a need for better forecasting, greater coordination, and more flexible consumption due to the intermittent nature of solar and wind.

(3) Managing complex, decentralised energy systems at scale: The low-carbon energy transition is driving the growth of distributed power generation, distributed storage, and advanced demand response capabilities. Enhanced orchestrated and integrated into networked, transactional power grids will be vital.

Navigating these opportunities presents huge strategic and operational challenges for energy-intensive sectors and energy systems themselves. AI has the ability to identify patterns and insights in data, “learn” lessons accurately and improve system performance over time, and predict and model possible outcomes for complex situations. 

Recent efforts to deploy AI in the energy sector have proven promising but innovation and adoption remain limited. AI holds far greater potential to accelerate the global energy transition but it will only be realized if there is greater AI innovation, adoption and collaboration across the industry. To address this, the white paper establishes a set of principles to help industry govern and scale AI technology in a rapid, safe and fair manner.

The nine principles cited in the report aim to build industry trust in AI technologies so that they can play a greater role in the energy transition. Companies and policymakers must play an active role in governing and shaping the use of AI in the energy sector, establishing best practices for responsible deployment, and creating an enabling environment to unlock the full potential of AI technologies. 

Andreas Kuhlmann, Chief Executive Officer, dena, said: “As dena, we have been focusing on digital technologies for years. Especially with our ‘Future Energy Lab’ we are boosting Artificial intelligence projects AI is an essential technology for the energy transition since it will provide the glue to connect the different sectors (power, heat, mobility and industry) and serve as digital technology to effectively monitor systems and processes. To efficiently control the energy system of the future, which will be very volatile due to renewable energies, such agent-based control will play an overarching role.”

Jon Moore, Chief Executive Officer, BloombergNEF, also commented: “One of the key findings from our workshops was that whilst we could identify many tangible opportunities for AI in the energy transition, there was a real need for a set of common guiding principles to make these opportunities scalable.

“These principles should ideally create a framework that enables multiple stakeholder groups to work together effectively, on a pre-defined set of activities from governance, to design, to enabling infrastructure. They will enable us to move past the many ‘proofs of concept’ projects towards successful large-scale implementation of solutions.”

Access the Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to Accelerate the Energy Transition report.

The post Is AI the key to unlocking a faster energy transition? appeared first on Power Engineering International.

Hydropower has a key role to play in the transition to clean energy. It produces massive quantities of low-carbon electricity and its ability to provide flexibility and storage is unmatched. Many hydropower plants can ramp their electricity generation up or down very rapidly, compared with other power plants such as nuclear, coal or natural gas.

This makes it an attractive foundation for integrating greater amounts of wind and solar power ” since their output can vary depending on weather and the time of day/year.

However, the slowdown puts at risk the ambitions of countries wanting to reach net-zero while will ensuring reliable, affordable energy supplies, according to theà‚ Hydropower Special Market Report. The report is part of the IEA’s renewables market report series.

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Global hydropower capacity is expected to increase by 17% between 2021 and 2030, led by China, India, Turkey and Ethiopia, according to the report. This projected growth for the 2020s though is nearly 25% lower than the expansion of hydropower in the previous decade.

Reversing the expected slowdown will require a range of strong policy actions from governments addressing the major challenges which hamper faster deployment of hydropower. These measures include providing long-term visibility on revenues to ensure projects are economically viable and sufficiently attractive to investors, while also ensuring robust sustainability standards.

Hydropower can be a sustainable, climate-resilient baseload power

In 2020, hydropower supplied one sixth of the world’s electricity generation capacity. This made it the single largest source of low-carbon power ” more than all other renewables combined. Its output increased 70% over the past two decades, but its share of global electricity supply held steady during that time because of the increase in wind, solar PV, natural gas and coal.

Nonetheless, hydropower currently meets the majority of electricity demand across 28 different emerging and developing economies, affecting about 800 million people.

Dr Fatih Birol, IEA executive director called hydropower the forgotten giant of clean energy: “It needs to be put squarely back on the energy and climate agenda if countries are serious about meeting their net zero goals. It brings valuable scale and flexibility to help electricity systems adjust quickly to shifts in demand and to compensate for fluctuations in supply from other sources.

“Hydropower’s advantages can make it a natural enable of secure transitions in many countries as they shift to higher and higher shares of solar and wind ” provided that hydropower projects are developed in a sustainable and climate-resilient way.”

Not enough is being done to maintain ageing hydropower plants

The Report is the first study to provide detailed global forecast to 2030 for the three main types of hydropower ” reservoir, run-of-river and pumped storage facilities.

About half of hydropower’s economically viable potential worldwide remains untapped. It’s potential in developing and emerging economies reaches almost 60%.

Based on today’s policy settings China will remain the single largest hydropower market through 2030. They account for 40% of projected global expansion, followed by India. But, China’s share of global hydropower additions has been slowing down because of growing concerns over social and environmental impacts and decreased availability of economically attractive sites.

Between now and 2030 $127 billion (almost a quarter of global hydropower investment) will be spent on modernising ageing plants, mostly in developed economies. This is notable in North America where the average age of a hydropower plants is almost 50 years, and Europe where it is 45 years.

Still, the project investment falls short of the $300 billion the report estimates is needed to modernise all ageing hydropower plants around the world.

Getting to net-zero by 2050 is going to take a lot more commitment from governments

While hydropower is still an economically attractive proposition in many regions of the world, the Report does highlight a number of major challenges facing the sector. New projects often face very long lead times; lengthy permitting processes; high costs and risk from environmental assessments; and opposition from local communities. These pressures create higher investment risk and financing costs compared to other types of power generation and storage technologies which can discourage potential investors.

Theà‚ Hydropower Special Market Reportà‚ sets out seven key priorities for governments that want to accelerate the deployment of hydropower in a sustainable way. These include locking in long-term pricing structures and ensuring that hydropower projects adhere to strict guidelines and best practices. This kind of approach would minimise sustainability risks and maximise social, economic and environmental advantages.

If governments were to address these hurdles to faster deployment in an appropriate fashion, global hydropower capacity additions could be 40% higher from now to 2030. The Report say the increase is possible because government intervention would unblock the existing project pipeline.

But, if the world wants to get to net-zero emissions by 2050, as set out in the IEA Global Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050, then governments must raise their ambitions drastically.

Global hydropower capacity would need to grow twice as fast as currently projected between now and 2030. And, for this to happen a much strong and all-encompassing policy approach is needed.

Originally published by Theresa Smith on esi-africa.com

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The report was released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), World Bank, and World Health Organization (WHO).

According to the report, significant progress has been made since 2010 on various aspects of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, but progress has been unequal across regions. More than 1 billion people gained access to electricity globally over the past decade, but COVID’s financial impact has made basic electricity services unaffordable for 30 million more people, the majority located in Africa. Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia had the biggest electricity access deficits, with Ethiopia replacing India in the Top 3.

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Globally, the number of people without access to electricity declined from 1.2 billion in 2010 to 759 million in 2019. Electrification through decentralized renewable-based solutions in particular gained momentum. The number of people connected to mini grids more than doubled between 2010 and 2019, growing from 5 million to 11 million. However, an estimated 660 million people would still lack access in 2030, most of them in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The report examines ways to bridge the gaps to reach SDG7, chief among them the goal of significantly scaling up renewables. While renewable energy has seen unprecedented growth over the past decade, its share of total final energy consumption remained steady as global energy consumption grew at a similar rate. Renewables are most dynamic in the electricity sector, reaching around 25% in 2018, while progress in the heat and transport sectors has been much slower.

More than one third of the increase in renewable energy generation in 2018 can be attributed to East Asia, driven by large uptakes of solar and wind energy in China. The largest country-level advances in renewable energy in 2018 were in Spain, owing to higher hydropower generation, followed by Indonesia, with a rapid uptake of bioenergy.

Accelerating the pace of progress across all regions and indicators will require stronger political commitment, long-term energy planning, and adequate policy and scale incentives to spur faster uptake of sustainable energy solutions. Although clean energy investments continue to be sourced primarily from the private sector, the public sector remains a major source of financing and is central in leveraging private capital, particularly in developing countries and in a post-COVID context.

One of the newest indicators in the report, international public financial flows to developing countries, shows that international financial support continues to be concentrated in a few countries and failing to reach many of those most in need. Flows to developing countries in support of clean and renewable energy reached $14 billion in 2018, with a mere 20% going to the least-developed countries. An increased emphasis on “leaving no one behind” is required in the years ahead.

The COVID-19 crisis resulted in an estimated 7% year-on-year expansion of renewable electricity generation, supported by long-term contracts, low marginal costs, priority access to grids and installation of new renewable capacity. In contrast, renewable energy share for transport and heat declined in 2020. Renewable electricity accounts for almost half of global renewable energy consumption and three-quarters of its year-on-year increase, with hydropower being the largest renewable source of electricity globally and for each region. Heat had only a 1.2% absolute increase when it came to renewable sources.

Coal, gas and oil still meet three-quarters of global heat demand. Transport has the lowest renewable energy penetration of all sectors, with only 3.4% in 2018 being supplied by renewables. While Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest share of renewable sources in its energy supply, it is not modern ” 85% is traditional uses of biomass. Latin America and the Caribbean have the largest share of modern renewable energy uses, thanks to hydropower for electricity, bioenergy for industrial processes and biofuels for transport.

“On a global path to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, we can reach key sustainable energy targets by 2030 as we expand renewables in all sectors and increase energy efficiency,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of IEA. “Greater efforts to mobilize and scale up investment are essential to ensure that energy access progress continues in developing economies. Providing electricity access and clean cooking solutions to those people who are deprived of them today costs around $40 billion a year, equal to around 1% of average annual energy sector investment on a path to net zero by 2050. This fairer and cleaner energy future is achievable if governments work together to step up actions.”

“Renewable energy has proven itself to be reliable, cost-effective, and resilient during the pandemic, revealing its significant value at the forefront of the energy transition. But progress towards the achievement of climate objectives and SDG7 needs to move at an accelerated pace and equitable manner,” said Francesco La Camera, director-general of IRENA. “Efforts, including international public financial flows to renewables, must be scaled up to support countries that need the most improvement in clean, affordable, and sustainable energy access, healthcare, and welfare.”

This is the seventh edition of this report, formerly known as the Global Tracking Framework (GTF). This year’s edition was chaired by the United Nations Statistics Division. Funding for the report was provided by the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management.

Originally published on hydroreview.com

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The report, Global Renewables Markets Attractiveness Rankings, tracks countries’ attractiveness for investment for offshore wind, onshore wind and solar PV and does not focus on hydro.

The ranking is based on seven subcategories including the current policy framework, market fundamentals, investor friendliness, infrastructure readiness, revenue risks and return expectations, easiness to compete and the overall opportunity size for each market.

Indra Mukherjee, senior analyst, global clean energy technology and renewables, IHS Markit, said: “The ongoing transition to competitive procurement and a growing need for grid-parity renewable power has forced investors to look beyond just financial incentives and focus on factors including economic stability, market liberalization and investor friendliness.”

The top ten most attractive markets for renewable energy investment for the period ending December 2020 include:

1. The United States

The US has been placed at number one owing to the pledges made by the Biden Administration to increase focus on renewable energy development by reversing the damages made by regulations adopted by the Trump government that favoured conventional energy generation.

The Biden Administration pledged to significantly increase federal investment in renewable energy under the American Jobs Plan. After the Trump Administration pulled out of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the first move made by the Biden government when enacted was to rejoin the partition, a development that is expected to increase funding towards clean energy resources as the country decarbonises.

According to IHS Markit, the US claimed the top spot on account of sound market fundamentals and the availability of an attractiveࢀ”though phasing downࢀ”support scheme.

The US also retained the top ranking in investment attractiveness for onshore wind and solar PV.

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2. Germany

Europe’s biggest economy and the world’s fourth-largest has been placed at number two as the country intensifies its deployment of renewables.

In 2020, renewable energy including hydro and biogas accounted to 46% of Germany’s total energy consumption, nearly equaling that of coal, gas, oil, and nuclear power combined. Germany is fast-forwarding the closure of its coal-fired power plants as well as nuclear and ramping up its investments in renewables. The country’s policies on climate change mitigation are a key driver following the Germany’top court ruling that binding to the EU target of reducing emissions by 55% by 2030 is not enough for the country to address challenges resulting from climate change.

3. Mainland China

Although China is claimed to be the world’s largest market for renewable energy in terms of capacity deployment, IHS Markit has ranked the world’s second biggest economy as number three as difficulties in accessing the market weighed down its overall score.

Eduard Sala de Vedruna, executive director, global clean energy technology and renewables, IHS Markit, said: “While the lion’s share of 2020 capacity additions came from just two marketsࢀ”China and the United Statesࢀ”close to 50 markets recorded double digit growth in the past year.

4. France

France and Spain have been positioned at number four and number five, respectively owing to strong market fundamentals backed by stable procurement mechanisms and long-term clean energy targets. These have attracted large international investors to invest in the country’s renewables industry.

This May, European Investment Bank (EIB) partnered with public sector financial institution Caisse des Dépàƒ´ts to establish a new €1 billion ($1.2 billion) investment vehicle aimed at accelerating the energy transition in France.

France has also announced a €100 billion ($120.8 billion) green recovery plan to be made through ‘France Relance’. Up to 50% of the budget will be directed towards ecological transition with “the objective of reducing by 2030 gas emissions by 55% compared to the 1990 levels.

5. Spain

In 2020, Teresa Ribera, Spain’s vice president and Minister of Ecology announced the country’s new proposed net-zero carbon plan which included cutting the country’s carbon emissions to net-zero by 2050 and banning all new coal, oil and gas extraction projects with immediate effect. This meant the country’s readiness to expand its renewables market.

Large international investors such as the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Official Credit Institute have in 2020 released significant investments to scale up the Spanish renewables market.

6. India

India has been ranked at number six owing to strong ambitions and stable procurement initiatives. The Government of India has set a target of installing of installing 175GW of renewable energy capacity by the year 2022, which includes 100GW from solar, 60GW from wind, 10GW from bio-power and 5GW from small hydro-power.

However, India’s onshore wind build has suffered from lack of grid and land access, a factor that is likely to hinder adoption.

7. Australia

Australia has been placed at number seven owing to a high degree of investor friendliness. However, the disconnection between federal and state ambitions have increased investor uncertainty.

“While strong ambitions are perceived positively by investors and testify to a market’s commitment towards renewables, this needs to be backed by a well-conceived implementation framework, adequate infrastructure and durable policies,” added Mukherjee.

8. Japan

Strong ambitions and stable procurement mechanisms in addition to investor friendliness are the key factors that have resulted in the placement of Japan and the Netherlands on number eight and nine, respectively.

Over $100 billion of investment in wind and solar power plants are expected to push Japan’s renewables share to 27% of the generation mix by 2030, exceeding the country’s target, according to research firm Wood Mackenzie.

9. The Netherlands

In addition, their strong impetus towards offshore wind (the fastest growing renewable energy technology in the next decade) is also expected to drive the increase in investments in Japan and the Netherlands.

The Dutch government has adopted a number of policies that are likely to encourage investments in renewable energy projects. These mandates include closing down all remaining five coal-fired plants no later than 2030 to achieve a 49% reduction of carbon emissions.

The Netherlands supports the increase of the European 2030 renewable energy target to 32%. However, the Netherlands applies a bandwidth of 27 to 35% for the national target for renewable energy.

10. Brazil

Following the country hitting the 7GW of operational PV milestone in 2020, the government has set a target to produce 45% of its energy by 2050, a development which is expected to drive investments within the renewables segment over the coming years.

“Onshore wind, offshore wind and solar PV are set to account for over 80% of all new power generation capacity additions globally to 2030,” added Eduard Sala de Vedruna.

Read more information about the report.

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